Several topics we have discussed a lot over the past 1-2 weeks have been:

1.  Surges of big warmth with some 80s

2.  Hard freeze with big upper trough in latter October

4.  Potential tropical development in the southern Gulf to perhaps Florida & up the East Coast.

5.  This being sort of a combo of the type of Autumn weather in the 2020 & 2021 La Ninas.

Here is where we stand in all of this based on the new, absolute latest data available:

After 38-44 this morning, highs today reached 75-80 with afternoon dew points in the 31-39 range.  This, with the wind gusts as high as 27 mph from the southwest, led to a few grass fires.

With increasing clouds later on tonight & a couple sprinkles to isolated light showers around sunrise, lows of 48-56 are expected tonight.

Winds will be southwest at 5-15 mph.

Temperatures should fall pretty rapidly this evening with mostly clear skies, then level & even rise a couple to few degrees later tonight as the clouds come in.

As for Tuesday, skies should become mostly cloudy to cloudy with a breezy to windy weather until later in day (when winds diminish greatly).  Gusts for a while (near midday to early afternoon) may run 28-37 mph from the south-southwest. 

Highs of 68-76, but given the lingering dry air, we should evaporatively cool to 61-65 with passing showers.

That said, we may have a couple to few isolated sprinkles & light showers amidst virga in the morning, then scattered showers midday to afternoon.

The showers will pull away tomorrow evening.

As for tomorrow night, with south-southwest wind increasing again, it should be a mild night with lows only 56-61.

A wave of showers & isolated embedded t'showers should pass.

Any severe weather risk should stay northwest, west & southwest of our area for tomorrow & tomorrow night.

If there is going to be an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK from MARGINAL RISK to our west, would tend to occur over Iowa where the best overlay of ML CAPE (instability) & shear, as well as dynamics, are located.

After some lulling with just a few isolated showers Wednesday morning, periods of showers & some storms are expected Wednesday.

Highs of 68-75 are expected with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies & strong south-southwest winds gusting 30-40 mph at times.

Lack of more appreciable ML CAPE or instability with the shear & dynamics precludes higher severe weather risk than MARGINAL RISK. 

A couple isolated embedded severe storms cannot be ruled out (wind).

This would tend to occur as a node, kidney bean-shape or LEWP (S-shape) in radar reflectivity in a couple lines of storms in the afternoon to evening.

At this current point, it appears SLIGHT RISK parameters tend to set up southeast & south of our region where there will be more heating & instability, though the shear & dynamics will be a bit less than here.

There will be too much rainfall & cloudiness for 77-82 Tuesday or Wednesday.

In terms of total rainfall Tuesday-Thursday morning, near 0.50-1" amounts seem likely.

A wave of showers should then pivot through Wednesday night with wind shift from west to west-northwest (gusts to 35 mph).  Temperatures should cool down to 43-47.

Skies look partly cloudy to mostly sunny Thursday with cumulus clouds (more clouds north& northeast) & highs 56-64 & west winds to 35 mph.

After diminishing winds, clearing skies & 33-36 Thursday night to early Friday morning, highs Friday of 55-63 are expected.  Skies should be mostly sunny over the southwestern half of the area & partly to mostly cloudy north (stratocumulus & cumulus clouds).

Winds will be west at 15-30 mph.

Saturday looks windy & warmer with highs 67-73 with southwest winds to 40 mph & increasing clouds later in the day (after morning lows of 39-45).  Lows Friday night may occur before 3 a.m. & then rise some as southwest wind & warm air advection kick in.

An upper trough & surface cold front should pass Saturday night-early Sunday morning with a wave of a few scattered showers & isolated t'showers (0.03-0.20" rainfall possible).

There are some signs of this speeding up & impacting us right exactly on Saturday for tailgating the Purdue football game, so STAY TUNED for any changes to this forecast!

Impacting us Saturday night trend in the timing would impact the latter parts of the Purdue game.

Again, we will continue to monitor.  It would be a wave of showers & isolated brief thunder/lightning.

After that, October 17-25 looks dry with northwest winds & cooler weather becoming southwest with much warmer weather.

After that, October 17-23 looks dry with northwest winds & cooler weather (frost & light freezing on some nights & highs 50s to eventually 60s) becoming southwest with much warmer weather (warming to 70s & 80s).

Potential is there for near/record warm night &/or day.

We then watch a vigorous storm system around October 23 or 24.

Strong shear & dynamics with decent ML CAPE support severe weather risk with potential cool-season QLCS squall line.

Much colder weather follows with hard freezing possible (lows 23-27).

Given the cool nights, thoughts are that the peak Fall color will occur at the end of October to early November.........only a week later than normal.  This is unlike last year when vivid Fall color occurred past the mid-point of November & the peak was up to 3 weeks late.  Abnormally warm, wet conditions drove this last year.  2020 saw later than normal Fall color peak due to the impressive warmth at times in October to November (near all-time record warmth to begin November 2020).

We then warm up significantly in early part of November!

There are signs of severe weather risk near or just after November 5 or 6.

There are signs of near/record warmth at times nearing November 15.

Severe weather weather may occur near November 15.  That is a climatologically-favored time frame for vigorous cold fronts & upper troughs.

Strong upper trough pivoting through with the warmth corresponds with this favorable time for active weather.

Note the projected low temperatures in mid-November!  

This corresponds we also with a long-duration La Nina.

I still like the notion of a shot of below normal temperatures coming in for latter November with even a few rain & snow showers.

We will likely have some nights of hard, hard freezing at 17-24.

In terms of the tropics...........

The remnants of "Julia" are now on the southern end of the Yucatan Peninsula, but will tend to re-emerge into the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

We will monitor as this system may re-organize & then move toward Florida (in high shear environment, keeping it from overly-intensifying) & then ride up the East Coast, where it may intensify.

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